Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 21.269264 22.446956 23.686614 25.094187 26.654840 28.340108 30.308270
2025-12-28 19.874448 21.507512 23.305882 25.452070 27.969426 30.862165 34.488797
2026-01-04 18.585317 20.413585 22.482414 25.029129 28.126962 31.839136 36.732956
2026-01-11 18.025924 20.067726 22.436541 25.438817 29.221615 33.948685 40.515617
2026-01-18 17.467474 19.659116 22.254144 25.624227 30.000500 35.675734 43.949329
2026-01-25 16.736433 18.987012 21.692170 25.270030 30.024663 36.372787 45.997448
2026-02-01 16.064646 18.345745 21.122204 24.851582 29.907062 36.831928 47.710410
2026-02-08 15.257514 17.497930 20.246985 23.976863 29.099653 36.238071 47.728248
2026-02-15 15.072551 17.417303 20.336496 24.370358 30.046205 38.214643 51.996503
2026-02-22 14.835114 17.255371 20.306828 24.591924 30.753265 39.886796 56.002171
2026-03-01 14.300281 16.689939 19.722747 24.018006 30.265850 39.677909 56.705085
2026-03-08 13.457435 15.702954 18.551669 22.584078 28.445359 37.266187 53.198601
2026-03-15 13.093137 15.374049 18.303241 22.516017 28.775159 38.491439 56.931659
2026-03-22 12.863969 15.214809 18.276977 22.764265 29.608914 40.647826 62.975169
2026-03-29 12.449845 14.790190 17.865337 22.424307 29.494567 41.182099 65.855231
2026-04-05 12.299876 14.709699 17.918204 22.760415 30.466569 43.717023 73.759292
2026-04-12 12.101198 14.553232 17.854510 22.913255 31.147314 45.813939 81.385570
2026-04-19 11.775758 14.211208 17.513075 22.621636 31.057472 46.434407 85.485851
2026-04-26 11.454313 13.863964 17.150188 22.276455 30.847322 46.789524 89.000110
2026-05-03 11.034885 13.369825 16.560649 21.552280 29.934271 45.636629 87.840855
2026-05-10 10.953399 13.341541 16.640124 21.878488 30.880582 48.409920 99.685513
2026-05-17 10.834586 13.256202 16.631612 22.061853 31.584579 50.784845 111.693134
2026-05-24 10.536051 12.909322 16.226947 21.586422 31.046857 50.341553 113.277516